The problem with ‘genuine reconciliation’ is that it simply does not work when there is not a dominant group. In Somaliland, ‘reconciliation’ worked because the Dhulbahante and Samaroon understood implicitly they would face a rather unpleasant time if they did not reconcile with the Issak and go along with Somaliland, or at least not resistant beyond a few border towns far away from the reach of Hargesia.
Why does reconciliation not work without a power imbalance? This is because people, for likely neurological reasons, have trouble understanding or caring about the pain of out-groups (in Somalia context, other clans). They only care about their issues, their suffering and their political demands which are often expressed in ways that demand unrealistic power and acknowledgment. South Somalia’s problem is that there is not only a history of horrific clan violence, but. there is no dominant group so it’s the perfect place for lawlessness to fester. Reconciliation conferences have been called there for over 30 years and they have achieved nothing.
The only plausible path to peace is for one group to gain the upper-hand, likely through generous international funding and a blind eye turned toward them as they ruthlessly stamp out opponents to their rule. Of course, this is unlikely to be supported by the IC so South Somalia will be stuck in the same trap for decades to come, unless it is abandoned to Al Shabaab which is plausible given what is happening in Afghanistan with the Taliban.
The problem with ‘genuine reconciliation’ is that it simply does not work when there is not a dominant group. In Somaliland, ‘reconciliation’ worked because the Dhulbahante and Samaroon understood implicitly they would face a rather unpleasant time if they did not reconcile with the Issak and go along with Somaliland, or at least not resistant beyond a few border towns far away from the reach of Hargesia.
Why does reconciliation not work without a power imbalance? This is because people, for likely neurological reasons, have trouble understanding or caring about the pain of out-groups (in Somalia context, other clans). They only care about their issues, their suffering and their political demands which are often expressed in ways that demand unrealistic power and acknowledgment. South Somalia’s problem is that there is not only a history of horrific clan violence, but. there is no dominant group so it’s the perfect place for lawlessness to fester. Reconciliation conferences have been called there for over 30 years and they have achieved nothing.
The only plausible path to peace is for one group to gain the upper-hand, likely through generous international funding and a blind eye turned toward them as they ruthlessly stamp out opponents to their rule. Of course, this is unlikely to be supported by the IC so South Somalia will be stuck in the same trap for decades to come, unless it is abandoned to Al Shabaab which is plausible given what is happening in Afghanistan with the Taliban.